Housing market in Jefferson County bucking national trend
According to national press reports, the housing market is in the midst of a serious slump. But, that information — however valid — is not necessarily the case locally, according to those who work in real estate.
While residential sales in Jefferson County may no longer be booming, houses are being sold, said Robyn Haynes, the Jefferson County Board of Realtors president.
“Overall, the housing market is very strong in Jefferson County,” Haynes said. “We’re still seeing appreciation in the overall market in St. Louis. Jefferson County, overall, is only down 4 percent.”
Which is much less than the 10 percent drop in home sales nationwide during the first half of the year, according to published reports. Haynes explained that the real estate sales along the Pacific and Atlantic seaboards historically fluctuate a great deal more than what occurs in the heart of the country.
“I think you have to understand the coastal markets that have been hit extremely hard,” she said. “Like, in California, the $3 million homes that went up to $6 million now are back down to $3 million. The values were artificially inflated.
“In the Midwest, it takes a lot longer for trends to get to us. The trends don’t affect us as much. We’ve seen minor adjustments, of course.”
Jefferson County residents who wish to sell their homes should go ahead and try, said Haynes.
“I think the boom has ended,” she said. “The reason is, you’re going to have a market correction.
“You’re either in a sellers’ market, a buyers’ market or a transition market. We’re really in a transition market, which is not that bad. Homes are still selling.
“It’s still a great time to buy and sell. Sellers need to know there is more competition. Because of that, they need to price it right and make sure the condition is superior.”
A real estate market researcher and consultant says that Jefferson County currently has a solid balance of supply and demand in its new housing market.
“One of the key indications we look at (involving housing markets) is if supply is in balance with demand,” said Joe Zanola of St. Louis-based ZanolaCo. “The rule of thumb we have is, if the current percentage of new homes available equals 20 percent of the previous year’s closings.
“We have a report period that came out n July ‘07 and our audit showed an inventory of 213 homes - that’s the new homes for sale at the time of the audit. We had an annual closing rate of 1,000 homes for July ‘06 to July ‘07. We’re forecasting for ‘07-’08 a closing of 1,013 homes. So, the 213 currently available comes out around 21 percent.”
This puts Jefferson County in a strong position among the counties in the region in terms of new home sales, said Zanola.
“Of the 10 counties in the metro area we audited, Jefferson County is in the best balance for new homes,” he said.
One company claiming there is a strong interest in its Jefferson County development is TMC Homes, developer of the Estates at Timberwolf along Route 61, south of Festus. The builder received contracts on more than 10 percent of the 32 homes in the development during its grand opening weekend over the summer.
“I think there are a couple of important reasons,” said Patrick Barry, the TMH Homes director of development. “First of all, it’s new. The second one is, which is as important, the display homes are very nice.
“We think the lots we have are a great selling point. They’re all approximately a half acre and go back to woods.”
The location of the Estates at Timberwolf apparently is a draw to many who live north and south of Festus, said Barry.
“They’re really coming from all over,” he said. “We’ve been really pleased with that. They’re coming from the St. Louis area, Festus, down to Cape Girardeau.”
The Estates at Timberwolf is a development of 32 homes starting at about $200,000 and ranging in size from 1,800- to 3,000-square feet. TMC Homes is a division of The Meyer Company, which is based in St. Louis.